Examining COVID-19’s Disruptive Effect on Education in Mexican Universities
Motivation
The COVID-19 pandemic forced universities worldwide to shut down campuses, move to remote instruction, and operate under conditions of profound economic and social disruption. In developing countries, where technological infrastructure is limited and students from lower-income backgrounds face significant barriers, these disruptions were expected to be especially severe.
This paper asks a precise question: by how much did the pandemic reduce new entry, enrollment, and graduation at Mexican universities, and did the impact fall equally across all types of institutions, all fields of study, and both genders?
Using administrative records from every university in Mexico, covering academic years 2017-2018 through 2020-2021, the paper provides the first causal estimates of the pandemic’s effect on higher education in a developing country at national scale. The results reveal that graduation was hit hardest, new entry declined sharply, and the impact varied substantially by field, institution type, and student gender.
Key Findings
The Counterintuitive Result
Elite universities (top-20 by QS ranking) gained new students relative to non-elite institutions during the pandemic. Rather than suffering equally, top-20 universities experienced a positive differential effect on new entry and enrollment. This suggests students shifted preferences toward institutions perceived as better equipped to handle the crisis, consistent with the broader finding that lower-income students bore disproportionate costs.
Study at a Glance
| Feature | Detail |
|---|---|
| Country | Mexico |
| Period | Academic years 2017-2018 to 2020-2021 |
| Institutions | All universities in Mexico |
| Observations | 50,670 (university × area of study × year) |
| Data source | ANUIES (National Association of Universities and Higher Education Institutions) |
| Outcomes | New entry, enrollment, graduation |
| Areas of study | 10 (sciences, engineering, health, IT, social sciences, education, business, arts & humanities, agronomy & veterinary, services) |
| Methods | Difference-in-differences (DiD) and difference-in-differences-in-differences (DDD) |
| Pre-pandemic new entry mean | 83.2 students per program |